Kyle Wiggs / Writing / Portfolios & risk
Portfolios & risk
The words on the allocation menu are doing far more work than they can support, and everyone assumes they mean the same thing by them.
To a model, conservative describes a position on a spectrum of volatility relative to other options.
To many clients, conservative means the value does not go down. Not less, not more slowly. Does not.
Because the word is never examined. It appears on a menu, the client selects it, and both parties proceed believing they agreed on something.
The disagreement surfaces in the first decline, which is the worst available moment.
A client who chose conservative and lost money believes something went wrong. From their definition, it did.
Which most people read as ordinary, or safe-but-sensible, rather than as a specific level of exposure.
Numbers about experience. This portfolio has historically declined by around this much in a bad period, and taken roughly this long to recover.
Drawdown communicates far better than standard deviation, because it describes the part people actually mind.
If this account fell by this many dollars over six months, what would you do?
The answer to that question is worth more than the entire questionnaire, and it frequently contradicts the label the client selected ten minutes earlier.
In the policy statement, in plain language, with a number attached.
Then the conversation in the decline is about a figure you both looked at, not about a word you both interpreted differently.
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